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Macroeconomic Effects of the Demographic Transition in Brazil

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dc.description.abstract Brazil is a prominent developing country with a still relatively young population that is undergoing what is expected to be a fast demographic transition. The dependency ratio the size of the population that is economically inactive to the size of the labor force - should hit bottom within the next ten years, and start increasing fast thereafter. Hence, the so-called first demographic dividend an increase in the size of the labor force relative to the overall population will soon turn negative and subtract from per capita growth. However, a second demographic dividend is possible if, facing the prospects of an extended period of retirement, individuals decide to increase the pace of asset accumulation. We use an open economy, two country, overlapping generations model to study the possibility of a meaningful second dividend materializing in Brazil. Our conclusion is that this is an unlikely outcome. The main culprit is a generous social security system that considerably undermines households incentives to save for retirement. en
dc.title Macroeconomic Effects of the Demographic Transition in Brazil en
dc.contributor.author Brito, Ricardo D.
dc.contributor.author Carvalho, Carlos
dc.date.accessioned 2018-02-21T18:56:42Z
dc.date.available 2018-02-21T18:56:42Z
dc.date.issued 2018-02-21
dc.identifier.uri http://lacer.lacea.org/handle/123456789/64694
lacea.language.supported en
dc.description Working paper
dc.language.iso en
dc.subject Demographic Transition
dc.subject Brazil
dc.subject Capital Flows
dc.subject Social Security
dc.subject Demographic Dividend
dc.type Working Paper


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