Conditional Transfers, Labor Supply, and Poverty: Microsimulating Oportunidades

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dc.description.abstract This article summarizes a microsimulation exercise for the Mexican human development program Oportunidades and presents a series of simulations of its actual and potential impact upon poverty at the national, urban and rural levels. The microsimulation tool used for this paper makes accounting and behavioral exercises and aims to answer three main questions: What would have happened to poverty if the program had been cancelled, if benefits were doubled, or if urban beneficiaries were doubled? We conclude that Oportunidades can be associated with up to a third of the reduction in rural poverty in Mexico by the year 2002. Doubling benefits and targeting urban beneficiaries would reduce poverty a further 30 percent from its 2002 level. We also find that each percentage point of poverty reduction at the rural level costs around 326 million pesos per month in cash transfers (that is, 1.2 percent of the central government´s total spending in 2002). Further reductions of poverty would have higher or lower average costs depending on the area and on whether they are performed either by extensions in coverage or by enlargement of benefits. Finally, behavioral simulations suggest that labor supply does not seem to be much affected by current cash transfers from Oportunidades. en
dc.title Conditional Transfers, Labor Supply, and Poverty: Microsimulating Oportunidades en
dc.contributor.author Freije, Samuel
dc.contributor.author Bando, Rosangela
dc.contributor.author Arce, Fernanda
dc.date.accessioned 2014-11-17T03:21:06Z
dc.date.available 2014-11-17T03:21:06Z
dc.date.issued 2006-10
dc.identifier.issn 1529-7470
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/48754
lacea.language.supported en
dc.contributor.other Comments by Carlos Medina and Raquel Bernal
dc.language.iso en
dc.publisher Brookings Institution Press
dc.subject Government Expenditures
dc.subject Welfare Programs
dc.subject Public economics
dc.subject Health
dc.subject Education
dc.subject Mexico
dc.subject Conditional Cash Transfer programs
dc.type Article

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