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How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

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dc.contributor.author Skoufias, Emmanuel
dc.contributor.author Leite, Phillippe
dc.contributor.author Narayan, Ambar
dc.date.accessioned 2012-03-19T18:03:01Z
dc.date.available 2012-03-19T18:03:01Z
dc.date.issued 2011-06-01
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3469
dc.description.abstract This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed. en
dc.language English
dc.relation.ispartofseries Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5705
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject ENROLLMENT RATE
dc.subject CONTROL GROUPS
dc.subject SCHOOL ATTENDANCE
dc.subject SIMULATIONS
dc.subject UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subject RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS
dc.subject DATA COLLECTION
dc.subject ENROLMENT RATES
dc.subject BASELINE SURVEYS
dc.subject TARGETING
dc.subject PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION
dc.subject METHODOLOGY
dc.subject BENEFICIARIES
dc.subject DROPOUT RATES
dc.subject EX POST EVALUATION
dc.subject ENROLLMENT RATES
dc.subject GIRLS
dc.subject EX ANTE ANALYSIS
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subject LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
dc.subject SIMULATION
dc.subject TRAINING PROGRAMS
dc.subject PROGRAM EFFECTS
dc.subject SCENARIO
dc.subject PROGRAM IMPACTS
dc.subject SCHOOLING
dc.subject TECHNIQUES
dc.subject EXPERIMENTS
dc.subject ENROLLMENT
dc.subject FORECASTS
dc.subject ENROLMENT RATE
dc.subject PROGRAMS
dc.subject DATA REQUIREMENTS
dc.subject PRIMARY SCHOOL
dc.subject EVALUATION STUDIES
dc.subject MODELING
dc.subject WAGES
dc.subject RELIABILITY
dc.subject SURVEY DATA
dc.subject PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE
dc.subject IMPACT EVALUATION
dc.subject AGE GROUPS
dc.subject CARE CENTERS
dc.subject POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject CHILD LABOR
dc.subject VALIDITY
dc.subject EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES
dc.subject EVALUATION METHODS
dc.subject SCHOOLS
dc.subject PROGRAM EVALUATION
dc.subject INCOME
dc.subject PRIMARY SCHOOLING
dc.subject TRANSPARENCY
dc.subject PRIMARY SCHOOL STUDENTS
dc.subject NUTRITION
dc.subject ESTIMATORS
dc.subject WEIGHTING
dc.subject TRAINING PROGRAMME
dc.subject QUASIEXPERIMENTAL METHODS
dc.subject EVALUATION RESULTS
dc.subject COUNTERFACTUAL
dc.subject SELECTION BIAS
dc.subject RESEARCHERS
dc.subject POVERTY ALLEVIATION
dc.subject TREATMENT GROUPS
dc.subject PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
dc.subject ARITHMETIC
dc.subject POVERTY MEASURES
dc.subject RURAL AREAS
dc.subject SAMPLE SIZE
dc.subject OUTCOME INDICATORS
dc.subject SCENARIOS
dc.subject HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject TREATMENT EFFECTS
dc.title How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs en
dc.rights.holder World Bank


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