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Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Population Aging in Brazil

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dc.contributor.author Jorgensen, Ole Hagen
dc.date.accessioned 2012-03-19T17:59:39Z
dc.date.available 2012-03-19T17:59:39Z
dc.date.issued 2011-01-01
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3292
dc.description.abstract This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of population aging in Brazil. Three alternative yet complementary methodologies are adopted, and depending on policy responses to the fiscal implications of aging, there are two main findings: First, saving rates could increase and not necessarily fall as a consequence of aging in Brazil -- thus contradicting conventional views. Second, lifetime wealth across generations could increase -- as capital deepening generates a second demographic dividend. Two policy responses to aging are emphasized: First, a structural policy response of linking mandatory retirement (or entitlement) ages to increasing life expectancy would boost labor supply and reduce the fiscal costs of aging. Second, in terms of preferable parametric policy responses, the second demographic dividend will be promoted to the highest extent by keeping taxes and debt unchanged while allowing public pensions to adjust downward. Such a policy response would keep pensions from further crowding out private saving -- thus balancing capital accumulation with intergenerational income distribution. In conclusion, Brazil will not necessarily experience a fall in saving and growth, but if government policies are appropriately, adequately, and timely formulated, population aging is likely to lead to substantial capital deepening and increases in lifetime income, wealth, and welfare. en
dc.language English
dc.relation.ispartofseries Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5519
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subject GOVERNMENT FINANCING
dc.subject OUTPUT
dc.subject ECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subject INTEREST PAYMENTS
dc.subject DEPENDENCY RATIOS
dc.subject DECLINE IN FERTILITY
dc.subject POPULATION DIVISION
dc.subject SAVINGS MECHANISM
dc.subject INTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subject CAPITAL ACCOUNT
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATES
dc.subject DOMESTIC DEBT
dc.subject FUTURE GENERATIONS
dc.subject POLITICAL STABILITY
dc.subject INCOMES
dc.subject DEBT
dc.subject PRIVATE CREDIT
dc.subject PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subject PRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subject SOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subject MULTIPLIERS
dc.subject ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
dc.subject POPULATION PROJECTIONS
dc.subject POLICY MAKERS
dc.subject ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
dc.subject RISK PREMIUM
dc.subject PRIVATE SAVINGS
dc.subject EFFECTS OF POPULATION
dc.subject PRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subject DEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subject DIVIDEND
dc.subject RISK OF DEFAULT
dc.subject CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subject TAX
dc.subject PENSION SYSTEM
dc.subject DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subject POLICY RESEARCH
dc.subject GDP PER CAPITA
dc.subject OUTPUT RATIO
dc.subject TRANSITION COUNTRIES
dc.subject FINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subject PUBLIC PENSION
dc.subject LABOR SUPPLY
dc.subject POPULATION STRUCTURE
dc.subject CHILD MORTALITY
dc.subject COMMODITY
dc.subject POSITIVE EFFECTS
dc.subject CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subject PENSION
dc.subject WAGE RATES
dc.subject FINANCIAL MARKET
dc.subject POLICY RESPONSE
dc.subject CHILD SURVIVAL
dc.subject PUBLIC PENSIONS
dc.subject BEQUEST
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subject PROGRESS
dc.subject OPTIMIZATION
dc.subject FERTILITY
dc.subject LOWER FERTILITY
dc.subject MARKET STRUCTURES
dc.subject PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
dc.subject INCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subject CAPITAL STOCK
dc.subject MARGINAL PRODUCTS
dc.subject RECEIPTS
dc.subject INCOME GROUPS
dc.subject M2
dc.subject REAL INTEREST
dc.subject DEBT SERVICE
dc.subject BEQUESTS
dc.subject INCOME GROWTH
dc.subject PHYSICAL CAPITAL
dc.subject EMPLOYERS
dc.subject DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
dc.subject INDEXATION
dc.subject POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
dc.subject AGE MORTALITY
dc.subject TRANSPARENCY
dc.subject FINANCIAL BURDEN
dc.subject INCOME GROUP
dc.subject AMORTIZATION
dc.subject HEALTH CARE
dc.subject PENSION SYSTEMS
dc.subject ELDERLY PEOPLE
dc.subject BORROWING
dc.subject GOVERNMENT POLICY
dc.subject INTEREST RATES
dc.subject GOVERNMENT BONDS
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD SAVING
dc.subject RESPECT
dc.subject DEPENDENCY RATIO
dc.subject POPULATION GROWTH RATE
dc.subject AGGREGATE DEBT
dc.subject FINANCES
dc.subject BASE YEAR
dc.subject ACCOUNTING
dc.subject SAVINGS RATIO
dc.subject CAPITAL SAVINGS
dc.subject PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject SURVIVAL RATE
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATE
dc.subject HUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subject RETIREMENT AGES
dc.subject POLICY DISCUSSIONS
dc.subject PUBLIC SAVING
dc.subject MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
dc.subject DOMESTIC BORROWING
dc.subject ALTERNATIVE FINANCING
dc.subject DEBT RATIO
dc.subject PUBLIC HEALTH
dc.subject LONGER LIFE
dc.subject FERTILITY RATES
dc.subject POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE
dc.subject PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSES
dc.subject FEWER PEOPLE
dc.subject OPEN ECONOMY
dc.subject NUMBER OF WORKERS
dc.subject SAVINGS MOTIVE
dc.subject FISCAL BURDEN
dc.subject ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
dc.subject DIVIDENDS
dc.subject REAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subject EDUCATION SYSTEMS
dc.subject DEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subject DEBT BURDEN
dc.subject INCOME LEVELS
dc.subject SAVINGS
dc.subject WEALTH
dc.subject EXPENDITURES
dc.subject ECONOMIC MODELS
dc.subject GOVERNMENT POLICIES
dc.subject ELASTICITY
dc.subject INVESTMENT RATE
dc.subject POLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subject REPLACEMENT RATE
dc.subject CLOSED ECONOMY
dc.subject SHARE OF CAPITAL
dc.subject FINANCIAL DEPTH
dc.subject IMMIGRATION
dc.subject POPULATION DYNAMICS
dc.subject INFLATION RATE
dc.subject RETIREMENT AGE
dc.subject OLD AGE
dc.subject LABOR FORCE
dc.subject DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
dc.subject DEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subject DISCOUNT RATE
dc.subject PRIVATE PENSIONS
dc.subject SOCIAL SECURITY
dc.subject SAVINGS RATE
dc.subject FACTORS OF PRODUCTION
dc.subject CURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subject FAMILIES
dc.subject INFORMAL CREDIT
dc.subject URBANIZATION
dc.subject POPULATION CHANGES
dc.subject ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject INEQUALITY
dc.subject PUBLIC DEBT
dc.subject DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
dc.subject AGING COUNTRIES
dc.subject ECONOMIC OUTCOMES
dc.subject EXCLUSION
dc.subject NORMAL GOOD
dc.subject CAPITAL MARKET
dc.subject LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
dc.subject NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject WAGES
dc.subject COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subject GOVERNMENT BUDGET
dc.subject GOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subject SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS
dc.subject CAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subject GOVERNMENT FINANCES
dc.subject DOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subject PENSION ASSETS
dc.subject POLICY RESPONSES
dc.subject PRIVATE PENSION
dc.subject EARNINGS
dc.subject EXPENDITURE
dc.subject FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subject GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
dc.subject GDP
dc.subject CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
dc.subject GROWTH RATE
dc.subject INCOME
dc.subject POPULATION GROWTH
dc.subject REPLACEMENT RATES
dc.subject IMPROVEMENTS IN CHILD SURVIVAL
dc.subject PENSION CONTRIBUTION
dc.subject MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subject DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
dc.subject DEBT FINANCING
dc.subject FISCAL POLICY
dc.subject OLDER AGE GROUPS
dc.subject PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT
dc.subject CREDIT FLOWS
dc.subject TAX RATE
dc.subject INFLATION
dc.subject OLD-AGE
dc.subject RATE OF RETURN
dc.subject PRIVATE SAVING
dc.subject GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
dc.subject PUBLIC FINANCE
dc.subject ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subject INTEREST RATE
dc.subject PERFECT COMPETITION
dc.subject HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject PENSION REFORM
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD LEVEL
dc.subject BUDGET CONSTRAINT
dc.subject ECONOMIC AGENTS
dc.subject POLICY IMPLICATIONS
dc.subject TRANSITION ECONOMIES
dc.subject TAX RATES
dc.subject FUTURE RESEARCH
dc.subject HEALTH SYSTEM
dc.subject ELDERLY
dc.subject RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION
dc.subject GROWTH THEORY
dc.subject LIFE EXPECTANCY
dc.subject PENSION CONTRIBUTIONS
dc.subject STOCKS
dc.title Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Population Aging in Brazil en
dc.rights.holder World Bank


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