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Gone with the Storm : Rainfall Shocks and Household Well-Being in Guatemala

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dc.contributor.author Salazar, Mateo
dc.contributor.author Baez, Javier E.
dc.contributor.author Lucchetti, Leonardo
dc.contributor.author Genoni, Maria E.
dc.date.accessioned 2015-02-03T17:21:14Z
dc.date.available 2015-02-03T17:21:14Z
dc.date.issued 2015-01
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21396
dc.description.abstract This paper investigates the causal consequences of Tropical Storm Agatha (2010) -- the strongest tropical storm ever to strike Guatemala since rainfall records have been kept -- on household welfare. The analysis reveals substantial negative effects, particularly among urban households. Per capita consumption fell by 12.6 percent, raising poverty by 5.5 percentage points (an increase of 18 percent). The negative effects of the shock span other areas of human welfare. Households cut back on food consumption (10 percent or 43 to 108 fewer calories per person per day) and reduced expenditures on basic durables. These effects are related to a drop in income per capita (10 percent), mostly among salaried workers. Adults coped with the shock by increasing their labor supply (on the intensive margin) and simultaneously relying on the labor supply of their children and withdrawing them from school. Impact heterogeneity is associated with the intensity of the shock, food price inflation, and the timing of Agatha with respect to the harvest cycle of the main crops. The results are robust to placebo treatments, household migration, issues of measurement error, and different samples. The negative effects of the storm partly explain the increase in poverty seen in urban Guatemala between 2006 and 2011, which national authorities and analysts previously attributed solely to the collateral effects of the global financial crisis. en
dc.language English
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher World Bank Group, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7177
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject WELFARE INDICATOR
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD HEAD
dc.subject TOTAL DAMAGES
dc.subject CALORIES PER DAY
dc.subject RURAL HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject INFANT MORTALITY
dc.subject PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
dc.subject SCHOOL ATTENDANCE
dc.subject LABOR INCOME
dc.subject AGRICULTURAL LAND
dc.subject FOOD PRICE
dc.subject DROUGHT
dc.subject LOSSES IN CONSUMPTION
dc.subject EXTREME POVERTY LINE
dc.subject EXTREME RAINFALL
dc.subject ALLOCATION MECHANISM
dc.subject POVERTY LINES
dc.subject POOR
dc.subject CONSUMPTION DATA
dc.subject NATURAL DISASTER
dc.subject CALORIE INTAKE
dc.subject CHILD NUTRITION
dc.subject TROPICAL CYCLONE
dc.subject TOTAL INCOME
dc.subject SOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subject POVERTY GAP
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subject POVERTY RATES
dc.subject RURAL
dc.subject INFANT MORTALITY RATES
dc.subject CONSUMPTION PRICE
dc.subject BUFFER STOCK
dc.subject FOOD AID
dc.subject CROP INCOME
dc.subject ALLOCATION
dc.subject MILK
dc.subject FOOD EXPENDITURES
dc.subject HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
dc.subject POVERTY STATUS
dc.subject ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY
dc.subject CONSUMPTION INSURANCE
dc.subject SUBSISTENCE
dc.subject POVERTY INCIDENCE
dc.subject NATIONAL POVERTY RATE
dc.subject NATIONAL POVERTY LINE
dc.subject ANTI-POVERTY
dc.subject TOTAL CONSUMPTION
dc.subject SCHOOLING
dc.subject VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY
dc.subject REDUCTION IN CONSUMPTION
dc.subject LABOR SUPPLY
dc.subject NATURAL SHOCKS
dc.subject LIVING STANDARDS
dc.subject POVERTY MAP
dc.subject INEQUALITY
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD BUDGET
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subject RISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subject RURAL VILLAGES
dc.subject PRICE INDEX
dc.subject DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subject POVERTY PERSISTENCE
dc.subject DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
dc.subject PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
dc.subject HOUSING
dc.subject CALORIES PER PERSON PER DAY
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES
dc.subject EXTREME WEATHER
dc.subject INCOME RISK
dc.subject MALNUTRITION
dc.subject CALORIES PER PERSON
dc.subject STORMS
dc.subject SANITATION
dc.subject RURAL POOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING
dc.subject POVERTY RATE
dc.subject NATIONAL POVERTY
dc.subject GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subject CHILD LABOR
dc.subject HIGHER INCIDENCE OF POVERTY
dc.subject CONSUMPTION MEASURE
dc.subject NATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subject EXTREME EVENTS
dc.subject FOOD ITEMS
dc.subject CONSUMPTION AGGREGATE
dc.subject AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
dc.subject RESOURCE ECONOMICS
dc.subject INCOME
dc.subject RURAL POOR
dc.subject JOBS
dc.subject EXTREME POVERTY
dc.subject FOOD SECURITY
dc.subject DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS
dc.subject NUTRITION
dc.subject ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD DATA
dc.subject CASH TRANSFERS
dc.subject GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS
dc.subject POVERTY THRESHOLD
dc.subject PRIVATE TRANSFERS
dc.subject HURRICANE
dc.subject INCOME SHOCK
dc.subject CLIMATE
dc.subject DIVERSIFICATION
dc.subject EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
dc.subject FOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subject HURRICANES
dc.subject FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject FOOD PRICES
dc.subject ECONOMIC IMPACTS
dc.subject HUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subject INSURANCE
dc.subject RURAL AREAS
dc.subject CONSUMPTION BASKET
dc.subject AVERAGE PRICE
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
dc.subject TROPICAL STORM
dc.subject RURAL FAMILIES
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS
dc.subject HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subject COLLATERAL EFFECTS
dc.subject ECONOMETRIC MODELS
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subject HURRICANE RISK
dc.title Gone with the Storm : Rainfall Shocks and Household Well-Being in Guatemala en


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