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Distinguishing between Observationally Equivalent Theories of Crises

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dc.contributor.author Shankar, Rashmi
dc.date.accessioned 2014-08-01T18:24:40Z
dc.date.available 2014-08-01T18:24:40Z
dc.date.issued 2002-11
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19202
dc.description.abstract The objective of this paper is to empirically test across alternative, apparently observationally equivalent theories of currency crises. Theories of crises are often difficult to distinguish from each other based on the behavior of commonly used predictors. Using a comprehensive data set on gross external assets and liabilities for 167 countries created by the World Bank's Latin America and the Caribbean Region and the Development Research Group, this study is able to make a significant move toward redressing this shortcoming. It focuses on identifying potential crisis predictors, as well as testing the validity of the distinct transmission mechanisms implied by various theories of currency crisis. Evidence is presented in support of insurance-based models, suggesting that proxies for contingent liability accumulation are effective crisis predictors. en
dc.language English
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2926
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject LIQUIDITY
dc.subject MONETARY AUTHORITIES
dc.subject INEFFICIENCY
dc.subject RECESSION
dc.subject TIME SERIES
dc.subject BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subject CENTRAL BANK
dc.subject BANK ASSETS
dc.subject FINANCIAL CRISES
dc.subject FOREIGN BANKS
dc.subject FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION
dc.subject VULNERABILITY
dc.subject BALANCE SHEET
dc.subject FOREIGN CAPITAL
dc.subject LENDER OF LAST RESORT
dc.subject DEBT
dc.subject RANDOM WALK
dc.subject MORAL HAZARD
dc.subject BANKING SECTOR
dc.subject GDP DEFLATOR
dc.subject MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subject POLICY MAKERS
dc.subject EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subject REAL GDP
dc.subject FINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subject ASSETS
dc.subject BANKING CRISIS
dc.subject EMPLOYMENT
dc.subject PUBLIC DEBT
dc.subject CAPITAL CONTROLS
dc.subject VOLATILITY
dc.subject LIQUID ASSETS
dc.subject IMPLICIT GUARANTEES
dc.subject CONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subject DOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subject DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
dc.subject CAPITAL FLIGHT
dc.subject CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION
dc.subject STOCK PRICES
dc.subject PORTFOLIO
dc.subject EMERGING MARKETS
dc.subject CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subject CURRENCY CRISES
dc.subject M2
dc.subject ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION
dc.subject GDP
dc.subject BANKING SYSTEM
dc.subject DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subject GROWTH RATE
dc.subject BANK RUNS
dc.subject ADVERSE SELECTION
dc.subject TRANSMISSION MECHANISM
dc.subject ILLIQUIDITY
dc.subject INTEREST RATES
dc.subject REAL WAGES
dc.subject BANK GUARANTEES
dc.subject INFLATION
dc.subject INSOLVENCY
dc.subject EXPROPRIATION
dc.subject DEPOSIT INSURANCE
dc.subject FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subject INTEREST RATE
dc.subject CAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subject INSURANCE
dc.subject FOREIGN ASSETS
dc.subject DEVALUATION
dc.subject MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
dc.subject IMPORTS
dc.subject BANKING CRISES
dc.subject MONETARY POLICY
dc.title Distinguishing between Observationally Equivalent Theories of Crises en


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